I confess I have not had the doubtful personal benefit of living through a hurricane but, from what I know, there is a quiet time associated with such events before the storm roars in.
Everyone can sense something is about to happen and that the experience about to unfold could be destructive and, at the very least, very damaging for some.
It seems to me that this picture could be applied to the independent school sector at the moment. Most things are positive, “quiet”, with pupil rolls strong and the sentiment of the parents who send their children to our schools both supportive and positive.
It is true the cost of living is having an impact and increased energy costs, particularly as fixed term deals sealed some time ago come to an end, are pushing up fee increases to higher percentages than anyone likes. Nonetheless, the sector has had a good time generally since the end of Covid restrictions.
“Salary costs for all support jobs are rising fast as people identify their worth in shortage areas.”
There is though the sense that the storm clouds are gathering and a very turbulent time lies ahead. Stubbornly high inflation figures mean everyday costs for schools are rising. The labour market is under supplied, so salary costs for all support jobs are rising at a rapid rate as people identify their worth in shortage areas.
If the school is fortunate enough to currently generate a financial surplus to potentially reinvest in the school’s campus they then face the prospect of huge increases in building costs, making projects unaffordable. And then there is the prospect of VAT on school fees. We don’t really know the detail of any future Labour government’s tax plans, but we are pretty sure it’s not going to be good for the sector.
If this is the nature of the coming storm, who will ride it out and who is vulnerable? To answer the latter question first, it is the school which really doesn’t know its market as it is today and isn’t structured to serve that market.
The school with a structure rooted in its history, in the manner the former pupils on the governing body so often imagine it should be, who will really struggle. The throwaway line is that small schools are most at risk, but this is too simplistic.
“We don’t know the detail of Labour’s tax plans, but we are sure it’s not going to be good for the sector.”
Yes, often the small school is run by a head who has to wear a multitude of different hats of responsibility and this can be very stressful. However, if you are a small school, cut your cloth accordingly and sell the merits of the smaller school, you will be fine.
In many ways it is the middle-sized school with a bloated curriculum and co-curricular offer, staffed for a much higher school roll, that will come under the greatest pressure. The truth is that all independent schools are going to be shaken by the coming ‘storm’ and there will undoubtedly be casualties in the form of school closures.
Already very evident are the changes taking place in school ownership and governance. There is a small amount of evidence that this change has resulted in asset stripping by those investing in a group of schools. However, this is not a widespread practice, as yet, and the aggregation of schools into a foundation or simply a schools’ group can see costs being removed, economies of scale being applied and the future of the school secured. We will undoubtedly see more schools finding themselves, by design or through circumstances, being part of a wider group.
“There will undoubtedly be casualties in the form of school closures.”
Much change is in the air but, whatever the size of the storm that hits the sector, let’s be clear there will still be independent schools long into the future. In the vast majority of cases, they are not houses built of straw but are institutions with the best of values and the strongest of foundations. IAPS has been around for over 130 years and I have been proud to have been its chief executive for the past five. I led the association through the Covid years and the membership came through strongly, with an enhanced reputation.
The threatened “storm” is certainly not the first major set of adverse factors to coincide and threaten our schools. Just as in the past, I am sure I will see the association and its schools still offering choice to parents who seek the very highest quality education for their children, with values which may be traditional in origin but endure nonetheless.